[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 21 09:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Four C class flares, the largest a C4.9 at 1251 UT along
with a C1.9 flare on 19 Aug/2018 UT. There is the possibility
of an M-class flare. New region 12148 (N08 E43) has shown strong
growth, with some growth in AR 12143 (S05 W25) and AR 12146 (N10
E23). The other three regions are stable or declining. A CME
was observed on the west limb at ~2018 UT on 19 Aug but is not
expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show the solar wind speed
decreasing from ~410 km/s to 340 km/s. The north-south IMF (Bz)
turned northwards after 19 Aug/21 UT. The strong northwards bias
was maintained until ~1850 UT, peaking at at 21 nT. Since then,
it has been mostly negative, peaking at -10 nT, but settling.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21221011
Cocos Island 4 21221110
Darwin 4 21221111
Townsville 7 32222122
Learmonth 4 21222011
Alice Springs 4 21221011
Norfolk Island 3 21111011
Culgoora 5 21221--2
Gingin 3 21211011
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 2 11211001
Launceston 4 21221012
Hobart 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 10100000
Casey 7 33211122
Mawson 13 52211034
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 1123 2245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 7 Quiet to unsettled
22 Aug 5 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Late storming on 19 Aug did not carry over into 20 Aug
as the north-south IMF turned strongly northward late on 19 Aug
and remained so until about 20 Aug/1850 UT halting merging with
the geomagnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-50% 07-13 UT. Depressed 20-35% 15-23 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-45% 00-01, 11-15, 23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-40% 00, 02-04, 13-19, 21 UT at Darwin.
Depressed 20-30% 02-04, 11-16, 22-23 UT at Townsville.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Some depressions to 20% 00-06, 11-13 UT, otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values. Hobart MUFs
were 15-35% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 20-40% starting to recover in the last
few hours.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
23 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Abovementioned depressions along with spread F and some
F layer tilting will have degraded communications at times on
20 Aug. Conditions should improve on 21 Aug although MUFs are
expected to remain below those based on the predicted monthly
T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 60200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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