[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 20 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Only two B-class events from AR 12147 (S09 E49). AR 
12143 (S05 W11) and new region at n07 E58 grew while other regions 
were stable. No Earth directed CMEs observed. ACE data show the 
solar wind undisturbed until ~06 UT although the north-south 
IMF (Bz) was mostly southward to -5 nT. A sudden impulse around 
06 UT was probably the arrival of the 15 Aug CME. Wind speed 
peaked at 467 km/s and has since declined to ~380 km/s. Bz was 
mostly southward 1600-2130 UT, -10 to -15 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   10321145
      Cocos Island         8   01221134
      Darwin              11   11321144
      Townsville          14   11331145
      Learmonth           13   10321245
      Alice Springs       12   00321145
      Norfolk Island       7   10220134
      Culgoora            12   103-1135
      Gingin              17   10321146
      Camden              11   11221135
      Canberra            10   00220135
      Launceston          13   01321245
      Hobart              10   00221135    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   00130024
      Casey               21   23331246
      Mawson              29   22223257
      Davis                9   12332232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1120 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    20    Quiet to Active
21 Aug     6    Quiet
22 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 19 August and 
is current for 20 Aug only. Minor storm levels last 3-hour period 
of 19 Aug due to extended southward IMF. Possible isolated minor 
storm levels in first half of 20 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
      04, 15-21, 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
      01-02, 06-13, 17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed at Darwin 20-40% 00, 03 07, 10, 12-16
      21, 23 UT. Depressed 20% at Townsville 00, 04, 23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of
      20-35% 15-22 UT except at Hobart and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    65    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
21 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
22 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be fair at times due to variable 
support and waves travelling through the ionosphere. Spread F 
likely at higher latitudes and possible at low latitudes during 
night.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 290 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    24400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list