[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 15 09:30:26 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. the solar wind speed declined
from ~400 km/s to ~360 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between
+/- 4 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to very low over
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 10110001
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 0 01010000
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 0 00000010
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 00010001
Launceston 2 11120001
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 6 22201014
Davis 7 23311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2222 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain
quiet on 14-Aug, with the possibility of some unsettled periods
on 15-16 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 13-15 Aug. Enhanced daytime MUFs were observed
in Niue Island. Variable MUF depressions elsewhere. An expected
increase in ionising solar radiation could bring MUFs closer
to predicted monthly values over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 72400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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