[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 14 issued 2335 UT on 13 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 14 09:35:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
Spot groups are stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed declined gradually from ~450 km/s to ~400
km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Solar activity
over the next 3 days is expected to be very low to low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22122011
Cocos Island 2 21111010
Darwin 3 21112011
Townsville 5 22222012
Learmonth 5 22222011
Alice Springs 3 22112001
Norfolk Island 2 12112000
Culgoora 4 12122011
Gingin 6 21223021
Camden 4 22122011
Canberra 3 12122001
Launceston 5 12223001
Hobart 4 12123000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11123000
Casey 8 33322021
Mawson 14 33223115
Davis 14 33333124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2211 134-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 7 Quiet
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled to minor
storm periods in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet on 14-15 Aug, with more active conditions on 16-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E were observed at Darwin between
19-21 UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 13-15 Aug. Significantly enhanced daytime
MUFs were observed in Cocus Island. Elsewhere in the north, daytime
MUFs were slightly depressed and nighttime ones more deeply depressed.
MUFs in southern Australia were closer to predicted monthly values.
MUFs could deteriorate further over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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