[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 13 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
CME events were observed on the east limb, but none were Earth-directed.
Regions 2139 (N14E58) and 2140 (N13W52) showed some growth. The
solar wind speed peaked around 560 km/s after 04 UT and has since
declined to 400-450 km/s. The IMZ Bf component varied between
-8 to +7 nT. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 21111233
Cocos Island 7 21111233
Darwin 6 22111232
Townsville 6 21111232
Learmonth 10 22112343
Alice Springs 7 21111233
Norfolk Island 5 22001232
Culgoora 6 21111232
Gingin 9 21111343
Camden 7 22111233
Canberra 6 21001233
Launceston 10 22012343
Hobart 8 21012333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 21001223
Casey 14 33331243
Mawson 39 63221375
Davis 31 42321275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 12 Quiet to Active
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Across the Australian region over the last 24 hours,
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled, with a
brief active period after 18 UT in the south and west. Conditions
reach storm levels in Antarctica at times. Quiet to active conditions
are expected for the Australian region on 13-Aug, gradually abating
to quiet conditions by 15-Aug as coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E were observed at Cocus Island
between 13-16 UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
15 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 12 August
and is current for 13-15 Aug. Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were
near predicted monthly values in southern Australia, with depressions
in the north, especially overnight. Depressed northern region
MUFs are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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