[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 12 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from region 2132 (S23W73). Region 2134 (N12W37) 
showed some growth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The 
solar wind speed is currently around 480 km/s. Over the last 
24 hours, the IMZ Bf component was mostly positive, but dipped 
below -7 nT around 22 UT. Solar activity is expected to very 
low to low over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111212
      Cocos Island         3   10111211
      Darwin               4   11111212
      Townsville           5   21112212
      Learmonth            4   21112211
      Alice Springs        3   11101202
      Norfolk Island       2   11001111
      Culgoora             4   11111212
      Gingin               3   10102211
      Camden               4   11111212
      Canberra             2   10001202
      Launceston           4   11102212
      Hobart               2   10101202    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001200
      Casey                8   33311212
      Mawson               5   22111311
      Davis                4   12221210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1022 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     7    Quiet
13 Aug     7    Quiet
14 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled periods in 
Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the 
next 3 days, with some unsettled periods on 12-13 Aug due to 
coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    72    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                15%
13 Aug    72    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                15%
14 Aug    72    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs have been near monthly predicted values to mildly 
depressed in central and southern Australia, with deeper depressions 
at times in the north. Similar conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    41900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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