[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 11 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed during
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C1 flare at 2134
UT from region 2137(S19W23). Solar wind speed mostly stayed around
330 km/s until 1300UT and then gradually increased to 450 km/s
by 2300UT. The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5
nT during this period. No earthward directed CME was observed
today. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels with
some possibility of isolated M-class event during the next 2
days (i.e. 11 and 12 August) and then decline to Very Low to
Low levels on 13 August. Some strengthening in solar wind stream
may be observed on 11 August due to the possibility of a coronal
hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11111231
Cocos Island 4 11111131
Darwin 5 11111231
Townsville 6 11122231
Learmonth 5 10112231
Alice Springs 3 10012221
Norfolk Island 2 01010121
Culgoora 3 11011221
Gingin 4 10111231
Camden 5 11111231
Canberra 2 00011221
Launceston 5 11111231
Hobart 3 00111221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00111120
Casey 6 22221222
Mawson 9 21122243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1220 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 7 Quiet
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Enhancement to Unsettled levels
may be possible at times on 11 August due to a possible coronal
hole effect. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 12 and 13
August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
at low and some mid-latitude locations today. Minor to mild MUF
depressions may continue to be observed on 11 August. HF conditions
are expected to return to more normal values on 12 and 13 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
in the equatorial and Northern Australian regions with mostly
normal HF conditions otherwise. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may continue to be observed on 11 August. HF conditions are expected
to return to more normal values on 12 and 13August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 44100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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