[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 16 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours,
with C1 flares from regions 2139 (N14E24) and 2144 (S19W27).
A long filament lifted around 16 UT from near the southern central
meridian, ejecting material mostly north of the ecliptic. The
solar wind speed declined from ~360 km/s to ~330 km/s. The IMF
Bz component varied between -4 nT and +3 nT Solar activity is
expected to be low over the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class
flares from region 2139.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11102001
Cocos Island 2 1--11001
Darwin 2 11102001
Townsville 3 12102102
Learmonth 2 11002001
Alice Springs 1 00102001
Norfolk Island 1 11001001
Culgoora 2 11102001
Gingin 1 00102001
Camden 2 21102001
Canberra 0 00002000
Launceston 3 11013100
Hobart 1 11002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00012100
Casey 5 32212101
Mawson 10 32101205
Davis 6 21311203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the last 24 hours, with some unsettled periods
in the Antarctic. Conditions are expected to become unsettled
during 16-Aug, returning to quiet conditions by 18-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Poor-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August
and is current for 16-18 Aug. Significant MUF depressions were
observed across the Australian region. MUF depressions are expected
to continue for the few days, but should lessen as the level
of ionising solar radiation increases.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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