[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 29 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
flare of this period, a C3.4, came from region 2048(N20W51) at 
1526 UT. Solar wind speed stayed between ~330 and ~270 km/s and 
the IMF Bz mostly stayed south up to approximately -4nT. There 
is some possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed parameters 
due to minor coronal hole effects over the next 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight 
chance of an isolated M-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21121001
      Cocos Island         0   110-0000
      Darwin               2   21110002
      Townsville           4   21121012
      Learmonth            2   21111001
      Alice Springs        2   21120001
      Norfolk Island       3   22120001
      Culgoora             3   21121011
      Gingin               2   21120000
      Camden               3   21121001
      Canberra             2   21120001
      Launceston           4   22131001
      Hobart               4   22131001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     5   21241000
      Casey                5   32221001
      Mawson              13   24322224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   1001 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     6    Quiet
30 Apr     5    Quiet
01 May     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with possible isolated Unsettled periods on 29 and 30 
April due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal in Aus/NZ 
regions during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may 
be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
01 May   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    37100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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