[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 28 09:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between ~330 and ~350 km/s and the IMF
Bz varied between +/-4 nT during this period. of this report.
There is some possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed
parameters due to minor coronal hole effects over the next 24
hours. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 1 11000001
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 2 11001012
Learmonth 1 20000002
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 1 11000001
Gingin 1 20000002
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000001
Launceston 1 11000101
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 4 32200102
Mawson 10 32101115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1322 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 6 Quiet
29 Apr 4 Quiet
30 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible
Unsettled periods for 28 April due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal with low to mid
latitude MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 28400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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