[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 28 09:30:35 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between ~330 and ~350 km/s and the IMF 
Bz varied between +/-4 nT during this period. of this report. 
There is some possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed 
parameters due to minor coronal hole effects over the next 24 
hours. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days 
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000001
      Cocos Island         1   11000001
      Darwin               1   11001001
      Townsville           2   11001012
      Learmonth            1   20000002
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Norfolk Island       0   10000001
      Culgoora             1   11000001
      Gingin               1   20000002
      Camden               0   10000001
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Launceston           1   11000101
      Hobart               0   10000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                4   32200102
      Mawson              10   32101115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1322 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     6    Quiet
29 Apr     4    Quiet
30 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible 
Unsettled periods for 28 April due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal with low to mid 
latitude MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    28400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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