[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 14 issued 2334 UT on 26 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 27 09:34:45 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             115/66             112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with minor 
C-class activity from regions behind both the east and west limb. 
Solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day from ~400km/s 
at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. Possible increase 
in solar wind speed parameters due to minor coronal hole effects 
over the next 24-48hours. The Bz component of IMF varied between 
+1 and-3nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 
3 days with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Cocos Island         2   12110010
      Darwin               3   12110012
      Townsville           4   22111112
      Learmonth            3   12111110
      Alice Springs        3   12101111
      Norfolk Island       2   02111000
      Culgoora             3   12111111
      Gingin               3   12111120
      Camden               4   12112111
      Canberra             2   02011101
      Launceston           4   12122111
      Hobart               3   02112111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   02122100
      Casey                6   22321111
      Mawson              17   33222354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3201 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr     7    Quiet
29 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible 
Unsettled to Active periods for 27Apr-28Apr due to minor coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with low to mid 
latitude MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Good HF conditions for all Equatorial, Northern AUS 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours with continued 
enhanced conditions during local day for Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions. Mostly normal HF conditions for Antarctic regions 
with only disturbed periods for IPS Mawson station. MUF's are 
expected to be near monthly predicted values for low to mid latitude 
stations for the next 3 days with possible enhancements of 10%-20% 
during local day for low latitudes. Possible disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions 27Apr-29Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    62800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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