[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 14 issued 2337 UT on 25 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 26 09:37:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.4    0027UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             118/70             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
an X1.3 flare at 0027UT from region 2035 that has rotated off 
the west limb. LASCO imagery indicates the associated CME was 
not earth directed. The solar wind speed ranged between 400kms 
and 500km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain 
within this range for the next 24-48 hours. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance 
of an isolated M-class flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32012331
      Cocos Island         6   31011322
      Darwin               6   32012222
      Townsville           8   32112331
      Learmonth            9   32123321
      Alice Springs        7   22012332
      Norfolk Island       4   21012220
      Culgoora             7   22012331
      Gingin               9   32013332
      Camden               8   22013331
      Canberra             7   22012331
      Launceston           9   32023331
      Hobart               9   32013331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   22023230
      Casey               13   34322332
      Mawson              20   34222454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2122 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours with an Unsettled to Active period between 14UT-20UT 
for mid to high latitude stations. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for the next three days with the chance of Active periods 
for 27Apr due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support for Equatorial regions 
over the last 24 hours with enhanced conditions during local 
day and some depressed periods during local night. Enhanced MUF's 
during local day for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Disturbed periods for Antarctic stations. MUF's are expected 
to be near monthly predicted values for low to mid latitude stations 
with possible enhancements of 10%-20% during local day for the 
next 3 days. Continued periods of disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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