[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 14 issued 2348 UT on 24 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 25 09:48:03 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             118/70

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours with 
numerous C class flares, the largest being a C3.3 from region 
2044(S18W08) at 2353UT on 23Apr and a C2.9 from region 2035 on 
the west limb at 1016UT 24Apr. The solar wind speed gradually 
increased from ~400km/s to ~450 km/s over the UT day today and 
the Bz component of IMF varied between +5nT and -6nT during this 
time. Low levels of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated 
M-flare may be expected over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221222
      Cocos Island         5   22221121
      Darwin               5   22221211
      Townsville           8   32321222
      Learmonth           10   32232322
      Alice Springs        6   22221221
      Norfolk Island       6   21321212
      Culgoora             6   22221222
      Gingin               7   22222222
      Camden               7   22321222
      Canberra             7   22321222
      Launceston           9   22322322
      Hobart               7   22222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    12   11343421
      Casey               12   34322223
      Mawson              39   63333366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   0012 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     5    Quiet
26 Apr     5    Quiet
27 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the 
last 24 hours. Similar Quiet conditions expected for the next 
three days with the chance of slightly elevated activity for 
27Apr due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Good ionospheric support across the AUS/NZ regions over 
the last 24 hours with enhanced MUF's observed between 00UT-16UT. 
Continued enhanced MUFs for Equatorial regions as well as daytime 
enhancements for Northern,Southern AUS/NZ regions on 25Apr. Similar 
conditions expected for 26Apr-27Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    49400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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