[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 14 issued 2348 UT on 24 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 25 09:48:03 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours with
numerous C class flares, the largest being a C3.3 from region
2044(S18W08) at 2353UT on 23Apr and a C2.9 from region 2035 on
the west limb at 1016UT 24Apr. The solar wind speed gradually
increased from ~400km/s to ~450 km/s over the UT day today and
the Bz component of IMF varied between +5nT and -6nT during this
time. Low levels of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated
M-flare may be expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Cocos Island 5 22221121
Darwin 5 22221211
Townsville 8 32321222
Learmonth 10 32232322
Alice Springs 6 22221221
Norfolk Island 6 21321212
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 7 22222222
Camden 7 22321222
Canberra 7 22321222
Launceston 9 22322322
Hobart 7 22222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 11343421
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 39 63333366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 0012 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 5 Quiet
27 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Similar Quiet conditions expected for the next
three days with the chance of slightly elevated activity for
27Apr due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good ionospheric support across the AUS/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours with enhanced MUF's observed between 00UT-16UT.
Continued enhanced MUFs for Equatorial regions as well as daytime
enhancements for Northern,Southern AUS/NZ regions on 25Apr. Similar
conditions expected for 26Apr-27Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 49400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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