[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 24 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours with 
several C class flares, the greatest being a C5.1 from region 
2035(S13W85) at 1306 UT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 450 to 400 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5nT during this time. Low levels of 
solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare may be 
expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112221
      Cocos Island         3   11120120
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            7   12222321
      Alice Springs        5   11112222
      Norfolk Island       2   11011111
      Culgoora             4   11112221
      Gingin               5   11112222
      Camden               4   11112221
      Canberra             4   11012221
      Launceston           6   12122222
      Hobart               5   11122221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00022210
      Casey               10   23322232
      Mawson              14   22222353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr     5    Quiet
25 Apr     5    Quiet
26 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days in Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    35700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list