[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 24 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours with
several C class flares, the greatest being a C5.1 from region
2035(S13W85) at 1306 UT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 450 to 400 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5nT during this time. Low levels of
solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare may be
expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11112221
Cocos Island 3 11120120
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 6 22112222
Learmonth 7 12222321
Alice Springs 5 11112222
Norfolk Island 2 11011111
Culgoora 4 11112221
Gingin 5 11112222
Camden 4 11112221
Canberra 4 11012221
Launceston 6 12122222
Hobart 5 11122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00022210
Casey 10 23322232
Mawson 14 22222353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days in Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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