[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 23 09:30:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares, 
the greatest being a C8.8 from region 2035(S13W71) at 1137 UT. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 to 450 km/s 
during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly 
positive upto 5nT during this time. Further gradual weakening 
in solar wind stream is expected over the next 24 hours. Low 
levels of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare 
may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110101
      Cocos Island         2   12110100
      Darwin               4   22210102
      Townsville           5   23210112
      Learmonth            4   22121210
      Alice Springs        3   22110101
      Norfolk Island       2   22110001
      Culgoora             3   22110111
      Gingin               3   12110210
      Camden               3   22110101
      Canberra             2   12010101
      Launceston           3   22111101
      Hobart               2   12110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000100
      Casey                6   23311110
      Mawson               9   22121143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22   4434 3522     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr     5    Quiet
24 Apr     5    Quiet
25 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days with 
the possibility of some Unsettled periods on 23 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr   125    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr   125    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days in Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 571 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    35600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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