[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 23 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares,
the greatest being a C8.8 from region 2035(S13W71) at 1137 UT.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 to 450 km/s
during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly
positive upto 5nT during this time. Further gradual weakening
in solar wind stream is expected over the next 24 hours. Low
levels of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare
may be expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22110101
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 4 22210102
Townsville 5 23210112
Learmonth 4 22121210
Alice Springs 3 22110101
Norfolk Island 2 22110001
Culgoora 3 22110111
Gingin 3 12110210
Camden 3 22110101
Canberra 2 12010101
Launceston 3 22111101
Hobart 2 12110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 01000100
Casey 6 23311110
Mawson 9 22121143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4434 3522
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 5 Quiet
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days with
the possibility of some Unsettled periods on 23 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days in Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 571 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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