[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 14 issued 2333 UT on 21 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 22 09:33:47 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 159/113


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares, 
the greatest being a C5 from region 2038(S10W20) at 2002 UT. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 600 to 520 km/s 
during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly 
positive during this time. Further gradual weakening in solar 
wind stream is expected over the next two days. Low levels of 
solar activity with a slight chance of isolated X-flare 
may be expected over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33342311
      Cocos Island         9   33332210
      Darwin              11   33332312
      Townsville          14   33442312
      Learmonth           15   43442311
      Alice Springs       11   33332311
      Norfolk Island      12   333323-1
      Culgoora            13   33-4231-
      Gingin              12   32343310
      Camden              12   33342311
      Canberra            12   33342301
      Launceston          17   33453311
      Hobart              13   33343311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    25   34464410
      Casey               15   44432311
      Mawson              24   54442522

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin              50   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin              64   (Active)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             21   3203 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     8    Quiet to Active
23 Apr     5    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and 
is current for 20-22 Apr. Geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet 
to Active levels today. Nearly similar levels of activity may 
be expected on 22 April with a likely decline to mostly Quiet 
levels of activity on 23 and 24 April with the possibility of 
some Unsettled periods on 23 April. In the IPS magnetometer data 
for 21 Apr, a weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0806UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1500UT 18/04, Ended at 1120UT 20/04

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding 
predicted monthly values. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr   125    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr   130    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or 
exceeding predicted monthly values. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days in Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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