[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 21 09:30:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C class flares 
from several sunspot regions, the greatest being a C6 from region 
2033(N12W83) with an associated TypeII radio burst. Several CMEs, 
one of which is most likely associated with this event, were 
seen directed out the western limb. None are likely to be geoeffective. 
The CME from the M1 flare observed on the 18th arrived just after 
10UT. There was no clear shock front. The IMF Bt increased to 
around 20nT but stayed mostly northward. The solar wind speed 
increased to a peak of around 700km/s and remain between 650-700 
km/s. The high energy solar proton flux has dipped below alert 
thresholds and continues to fall. There is some chance of further 
M class flare activity over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   32144333
      Cocos Island        12   32143232
      Darwin              13   32144232
      Townsville          17   33244333
      Learmonth           18   42144343
      Alice Springs       15   32144333
      Norfolk Island      12   32133333
      Culgoora            15   321443--
      Gingin              14   32133343
      Camden              15   32144333
      Canberra            14   32143333
      Launceston          19   32244344
      Hobart              15   32144333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   22035432
      Casey               29   04445633
      Mawson              32   34444562

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin              63   (Active)
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       14   (Quiet)
      Gingin              59   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            75   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   3322 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
22 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and 
is current for 20-22 Apr. In the IPS magnetometer data for 20 
Apr, a weak (18nT) impulse was observed at 1058UT. This corresponds 
to the significant of a CME arrival in the solar wind data, indicating 
the arrival of the CME as expected. The northward orientation 
of the interplanetary magnetic field following the CME arrival 
limited the geomagnetic impact to Active levels of activity initially, 
followed by Unsettled conditions. Conditions are expected to 
remain Unsettled with some possible Active periods over the next 
day, before easing back to mostly Quiet in the following days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1500UT 18/04, Ended at 1120UT 20/04

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: The recent PCA event has finished with the energetic 
proton flux falling below the threshold. Polar ionograms have 
returned to normal with no excess absorption seen. Some impacts 
to HF propagation in polar regions may be experience due to ongoing 
low level geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued 
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions 
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values. 
Geomagnetic activity was observed in association with an anticipated 
CME impact however the activity was less than expected and the 
impacts on the ionosphere have been minor. No significant reduction 
in MUF for non-polar users is now expected from this event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    47300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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