[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 21 09:30:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C class flares
from several sunspot regions, the greatest being a C6 from region
2033(N12W83) with an associated TypeII radio burst. Several CMEs,
one of which is most likely associated with this event, were
seen directed out the western limb. None are likely to be geoeffective.
The CME from the M1 flare observed on the 18th arrived just after
10UT. There was no clear shock front. The IMF Bt increased to
around 20nT but stayed mostly northward. The solar wind speed
increased to a peak of around 700km/s and remain between 650-700
km/s. The high energy solar proton flux has dipped below alert
thresholds and continues to fall. There is some chance of further
M class flare activity over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 32144333
Cocos Island 12 32143232
Darwin 13 32144232
Townsville 17 33244333
Learmonth 18 42144343
Alice Springs 15 32144333
Norfolk Island 12 32133333
Culgoora 15 321443--
Gingin 14 32133343
Camden 15 32144333
Canberra 14 32143333
Launceston 19 32244344
Hobart 15 32144333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 22035432
Casey 29 04445633
Mawson 32 34444562
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 63 (Active)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3322 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and
is current for 20-22 Apr. In the IPS magnetometer data for 20
Apr, a weak (18nT) impulse was observed at 1058UT. This corresponds
to the significant of a CME arrival in the solar wind data, indicating
the arrival of the CME as expected. The northward orientation
of the interplanetary magnetic field following the CME arrival
limited the geomagnetic impact to Active levels of activity initially,
followed by Unsettled conditions. Conditions are expected to
remain Unsettled with some possible Active periods over the next
day, before easing back to mostly Quiet in the following days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1500UT 18/04, Ended at 1120UT 20/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The recent PCA event has finished with the energetic
proton flux falling below the threshold. Polar ionograms have
returned to normal with no excess absorption seen. Some impacts
to HF propagation in polar regions may be experience due to ongoing
low level geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values.
Geomagnetic activity was observed in association with an anticipated
CME impact however the activity was less than expected and the
impacts on the ionosphere have been minor. No significant reduction
in MUF for non-polar users is now expected from this event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list