[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 20 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with several C class 
flares over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is steady 
at 500 km/s. A small step change in the IMF total field strength 
occurred around 1750UT, possibly indicating the arrival of the 
CME observed on the 15th of April. The speed and temperature 
elevated slightly after this event, however if this is the arrival 
of this CME, it is clear it will have little impact. There remain 
numerous sunspot regions on the disk with some chance of producing 
M class flares over the next few days. The arrival of the CME 
observed on the 18th of April is expected sometime around 12UT 
on the 20th.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33333332
      Cocos Island        10   23332231
      Darwin              14   33333332
      Townsville          15   33333432
      Learmonth           15   33333431
      Alice Springs       14   33333332
      Norfolk Island      12   33333321
      Culgoora            14   33333332
      Gingin              12   33322332
      Camden              15   33333431
      Canberra            13   33323332
      Launceston          15   33333431
      Hobart              14   23333431    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   2213342-
      Casey               18   3443333-
      Mawson              17   3433423-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1201 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    40    Minor Storm
21 Apr    30    Active to Minor Storm
22 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and 
is current for 20-22 Apr. Magnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled. 
In the IPS magnetometer data for 19 Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 1838UT. This was seen in association with a southward 
turning of the interplanetary magnetic field just after the possible 
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of April. The solar wind 
conditions following this impulse indicate that if this is the 
CME arrival, it will have little impact. The second CME, observed 
on the 18th, is expected to arrive around 12UT on the 20th bringing 
possible Minor to Major Storm followed by Active levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 19 04 2014 0100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor(PCA)
21 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: A PCA event is in progress and is expected to continue 
for at least another 24 hours. Significant geomagnetic activity 
is expected on the 20th and 21st of April which may impact HF 
propagation conditions, particularly at high and mid latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued 
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions 
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values. 
Significant geomagnetic activity is expected on the 20th and 
21st of April which may impact the MUF for HF communication, 
particularly in polar, southern and central Australia.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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