[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 14 issued 2346 UT on 18 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 19 09:46:35 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.3    1303UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M7 flare produced 
by region 2036(S16W41) peaking around 13UT. An strong, fast (1000km/s) 
asymmetric halo CME was observed in association with this event. 
The bulk of the material appears to be directed to the south, 
however a significant portion is likely to be in the ecliptic 
plane and is expected to arrive at Earth midway through the 20th 
of April UT. This is in addition to the previous slower moving 
CME which is expected to arrive at a similar time. The greater 
than 10 MeV proton flux passed the 10 pfu threshold following 
the M7 flare and is expected to remain elevated for several days. 
Further M class flare activity is possible over the next few 
days from several central located sunspot regions. The solar 
wind speed is steadily increasing and is currently over 500km/s 
with a 10 nT total field strength IMF mostly directed northward. 
Solar wind conditions are likely to remain quiet for the next 
24 hours, followed by significant increase in speed, density 
and magnetic field strength due to the joint arrival of the two 
CMEs.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23111012
      Cocos Island         4   22111111
      Darwin               6   32111122
      Townsville           6   23121112
      Learmonth            4   22110121
      Alice Springs        4   22111022
      Norfolk Island       3   22010012
      Culgoora             4   13111012
      Gingin               3   22100021
      Camden               5   23111012
      Canberra             3   13010012
      Launceston           6   23110123
      Hobart               4   13110012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   12020011
      Casey               13   25331122
      Mawson               6   23211122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3311 2421     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr    40    Minor Storm
21 Apr    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and 
is current for 20-22 Apr. Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet 
with some Unsettled periods. These conditions are expected to 
persist for the next 24 hours. On the 20th of April two CME impacts 
are expected, one a slow moving glancing blow followed by a fast 
moving more Earth directed event. IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14/12 
has been issued as is current for this event.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 19 04 2014 0100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
20 Apr      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor(PCA)
21 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: A PCA event is in progress and is expected to continue 
for at least 48 hours. Significant geomagnetic activity is expected 
on the 20th and 21st of April which may impact HF propagation 
conditions, particularly at high and mid latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 95% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued 
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions 
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values. 
Significant geomagnetic activity is expected on the 20th and 
21st of April which is expected to impact the MUF for HF communication, 
particularly in polar southern and central Australia. IPS preliminary 
HF radio communications warning 14/23 has been issued and is 
current for this event.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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