[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 18 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C class flares,
mostly from previously M flaring region 2035. The solar wind
speed has steadily increased over the last day to around 450km/s
commensurate with an increase in the IMF total field strength
to around 10nt, with some southward excursions. ACE satellite
data is suggestive that this is due to a solar sector boundary
crossing. A CME was observed, first appearing in SOHO coronagraph
imagery at 0125UT. The material looks to be directed mainly to
the south of the ecliptic plane however some minor impacts may
be experienced on the 19th-20th from this event. Further C class
flare activity is expected with some chance of M class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 32212221
Cocos Island 6 32211220
Darwin 6 32211221
Townsville 8 32312222
Learmonth 7 32212230
Alice Springs 6 22211231
Norfolk Island 7 3221122-
Culgoora 5 22211221
Gingin 6 32201230
Camden 7 32212221
Canberra 6 22212221
Launceston 9 33212231
Hobart 6 22212221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 21104511
Casey 14 43521121
Mawson 20 44422352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been mostly Quiet with some Unsettled
periods. These conditions may persist for one more day, followed
by possible mild impacts from the edge of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values. Some adverse conditions may be experienced
on the 20th of April due to possible geomagnetic activity. Any
reductions in the MUF are expected to be minor.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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