[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 18 09:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C class flares, 
mostly from previously M flaring region 2035. The solar wind 
speed has steadily increased over the last day to around 450km/s 
commensurate with an increase in the IMF total field strength 
to around 10nt, with some southward excursions. ACE satellite 
data is suggestive that this is due to a solar sector boundary 
crossing. A CME was observed, first appearing in SOHO coronagraph 
imagery at 0125UT. The material looks to be directed mainly to 
the south of the ecliptic plane however some minor impacts may 
be experienced on the 19th-20th from this event. Further C class 
flare activity is expected with some chance of M class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32212221
      Cocos Island         6   32211220
      Darwin               6   32211221
      Townsville           8   32312222
      Learmonth            7   32212230
      Alice Springs        6   22211231
      Norfolk Island       7   3221122-
      Culgoora             5   22211221
      Gingin               6   32201230
      Camden               7   32212221
      Canberra             6   22212221
      Launceston           9   33212231
      Hobart               6   22212221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   21104511
      Casey               14   43521121
      Mawson              20   44422352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been mostly Quiet with some Unsettled 
periods. These conditions may persist for one more day, followed 
by possible mild impacts from the edge of a CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding 
predicted monthly values. Some adverse conditions may be experienced 
on the 20th of April due to possible geomagnetic activity. Any 
reductions in the MUF are expected to be minor.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    31300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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