[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 17 09:30:26 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1       1959UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 184/137


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143

COMMENT: Solar activity is Moderate with a single M1 flare at 
20UT from region 2035(S17E11) and numerous C class flare from 
several other centrally located sunspot groups. Solar wind conditions 
remain ambient. No CMEs of significance have been observed, although 
coronagraph data in the period following the M1 flare is not 
yet available. Further update on that event will be given in 
tomorrow's report should a CME be observed. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at Low to Moderate levels with a reasonable 
chance of further M class flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121001
      Cocos Island         2   11021000
      Darwin               3   11122002
      Townsville           3   21111012
      Learmonth            2   11122000
      Alice Springs        1   00111001
      Norfolk Island       1   10020001
      Culgoora             1   11011001
      Gingin               2   01121001
      Camden               2   11021001
      Canberra             2   10021001
      Launceston           2   01121001
      Hobart               1   00021001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                5   22322000
      Mawson               4   21211111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              2   2221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     5    Quiet
18 Apr     5    Quiet
19 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding 
predicted monthly values. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated 
with numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the 
current levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    35300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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