[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 16 09:30:27 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Low levels with numerous C 
class flares, mostly from region 2036(S18E13) although the largest 
flare, a C7 was from region 2035(S19E26). No CMEs of significance 
were observed. Solar wind conditions are ambient.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101001
      Cocos Island         1   12001000
      Darwin               2   11101002
      Townsville           3   11111012
      Learmonth            3   22102010
      Alice Springs        2   11102001
      Norfolk Island       1   11100001
      Culgoora             2   11101012
      Gingin               3   11201111
      Camden               2   11101101
      Canberra             1   11101001
      Launceston           4   21212111
      Hobart               2   11102101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   01121100
      Casey                7   33212111
      Mawson              16   34212235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2131 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr     5    Quiet
17 Apr     5    Quiet
18 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding 
predicted monthly values, with some variability overnight in 
Northern Australia. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated with 
numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the current 
levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    66000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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