[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 14 issued 2332 UT on 14 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 15 09:32:01 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels, however there 
have been numerous C-class flares from the rapidly growing region 
2036(S198E13), the greatest being a C7. Previous region 2014 
(S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is currently coming 
into view around the eastern limb. Solar wind conditions are 
ambient. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over 
the next few days, with some chance of M class flare activity. 
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain ambient over the 
forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21210021
      Cocos Island         2   12110020
      Darwin               3   22210011
      Townsville           4   21220022
      Learmonth            4   22210021
      Alice Springs        3   11210021
      Norfolk Island       2   11210010
      Culgoora             3   11210021
      Gingin               4   11210031
      Camden               3   21210021
      Canberra             3   11210021
      Launceston           5   21310022
      Hobart               3   21210021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   11310011
      Casey                9   34320022
      Mawson              21   23431255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   4433 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     5    Quiet
16 Apr     5    Quiet
17 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
Quiet for the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding 
predicted monthly values, with some variability overnight in 
Northern Australia. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated with 
numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the current 
levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.6E+05
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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