[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 14 09:30:38 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Three low level C flares from active regions 12033 (N12 
E10), 12036 (S18 E27) and 12037. Region 12036 and local region 
at S20 E32 are growing, other regions are stable. No Earth directed 
CMEs noted. A filament was observed beginning to erupt from the 
northeast quadrant ~1409 UT. ACE data show the solar wind speed 
range 340-410 km/s with the north south IMF steady to -8 nT until 
04 UT, then +/- 5 nT. There is a chance of an M-class flare. 
Region 12014 (S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 14 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 
with some isolated active periods.

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32321131
      Cocos Island         7   31221131
      Darwin               7   32221131
      Townsville           8   23221132
      Learmonth            9   41221132
      Alice Springs        7   32220131
      Norfolk Island       6   23320020
      Culgoora             7   22321131
      Gingin              10   41221141
      Camden               9   23321132
      Canberra             8   22321132
      Launceston          10   23322232
      Hobart               9   23321232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   13353231
      Casey               11   33332132
      Mawson              51   66533366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22   5343 4233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Apr     5    Quiet
16 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Storm conditions at high latitudes were likely due to 
the sustained southward IMF on 12 and early 13 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-40%
      11-15 UT. Depressed 20% at 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Enhanced 25-35% 00, 06-09 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20%
      enhanced. Depressed 25-45% at Darwin 15-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Hobart near predicted monthly values to 20%
      depressed with spread F 11-22 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
15 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
16 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    29800 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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