[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 14 issued 2331 UT on 12 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 13 09:31:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: Two C-class flares from AR12035 (S18 E65). The larger 
was a C5.0 at 0727 UT which was associated with a moderate CME 
that was directed eastward and is unlikely to be geo-effective. 
All regions appear stable. ACE data show the north-south IMF 
sustained a steady southward bias to -9 nT from ~10 UT/11 Apr 
to ~17 UT. There is a chance of M-class flares from AR12035.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Active. 
Minor storm conditions at higher latitudes 12-15 UT.

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   32324122
      Cocos Island         6   31222121
      Darwin               7   22223122
      Townsville          11   32224123
      Learmonth           12   42333122
      Alice Springs        9   22224122
      Norfolk Island      10   32324111
      Culgoora            11   32324122
      Gingin              12   42333222
      Camden              11   32324122
      Canberra            11   32324122
      Launceston          11   3243-122
      Hobart               9   2243-121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    34   43566320
      Casey                6   32222111
      Mawson              28   55343353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        9   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   0121 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
14 Apr     5    Quiet
15 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 12 April and 
is current for 12-13 Apr. Active/minor storm conditions on 12 
Apr were due to a sustained southward bias of the IMF. Possible 
active conditions on 13 Apr due to a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20%
      11-14, 18-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
      00-03, 09-14, 23 UT, otherwise enhanced 20-60%.
   Northern Australian Region:.
      Enhanced 15-35% 07-14 and 20-40% 18-23 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 15-40%. Spread F at Hobart 08-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
14 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
15 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    21000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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