[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 12 09:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: AR 12035 (S16 E75) produced all flares, the largest 
a C9.4 at 1124 UT. Other regions remain mostly stable. Two CMEs 
observed, one from AR12035 and another projected to the south. 
These and the 10 Apr CME are unlikely to be geoeffective. ACE 
data show the solar wind speed range 345-425 km/s with the north-south 
IMF range +5 to -9 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
become mildly disturbed on 12 Apr due to the northern hemisphere 
coronal hole. AR 12035 is expected to contribute significantly 
to the flare count.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211212
      Cocos Island         3   12210111
      Darwin               6   22221212
      Townsville           8   22221323
      Learmonth            8   12321322
      Alice Springs        4   02221211
      Norfolk Island       5   12211212
      Culgoora             5   12211212
      Gingin               6   12211322
      Camden               5   12211212
      Canberra             4   02211212
      Launceston           8   12312322
      Hobart               6   12211312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   00111321
      Casey               10   14421221
      Mawson              17   02211364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1001 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Sustained southward IMF to -9 nT since ~10 UT may produce 
active, with slight chance of minor storm periods if it continues. 
Effects of coronal hole expected middle of 12 Apr bringing isolated 
active periods on 12 and 13 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data 00-22 UT. Near monthly predicted value at
      23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 30-50% 00-08 UT. Mostly near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
      35-50% 18-21 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 Apr   100    Mostly near predicted monthly values.
14 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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