[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 12 09:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: AR 12035 (S16 E75) produced all flares, the largest
a C9.4 at 1124 UT. Other regions remain mostly stable. Two CMEs
observed, one from AR12035 and another projected to the south.
These and the 10 Apr CME are unlikely to be geoeffective. ACE
data show the solar wind speed range 345-425 km/s with the north-south
IMF range +5 to -9 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
become mildly disturbed on 12 Apr due to the northern hemisphere
coronal hole. AR 12035 is expected to contribute significantly
to the flare count.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12211212
Cocos Island 3 12210111
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 8 22221323
Learmonth 8 12321322
Alice Springs 4 02221211
Norfolk Island 5 12211212
Culgoora 5 12211212
Gingin 6 12211322
Camden 5 12211212
Canberra 4 02211212
Launceston 8 12312322
Hobart 6 12211312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00111321
Casey 10 14421221
Mawson 17 02211364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Sustained southward IMF to -9 nT since ~10 UT may produce
active, with slight chance of minor storm periods if it continues.
Effects of coronal hole expected middle of 12 Apr bringing isolated
active periods on 12 and 13 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data 00-22 UT. Near monthly predicted value at
23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 30-50% 00-08 UT. Mostly near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
35-50% 18-21 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 Apr 100 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
14 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 68200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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