[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:30:22 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: At least 4 C-class flares. Three originated from the 
southeast limb while SDO images show the other originated from 
a spotless region near N03E05. All regions appear stable. Available 
LASCO and STEREO images show the only major CME was associated 
with a C3.6 flare at 1817 UT on the southeast limb. Further images 
are required to determine its trajectory. There may have been 
CMEs associated with a filament eruption around 0000 UT in the 
southeast quadrant and the C event at 1053 UT from the spotless 
region above. ACE parameters show the solar wind speed range 
360 to 470 km/s and the north-south IMF -2 to +5 nT. There is 
the possibility of M-class flares from the active region on the 
southeast limb. The leading edge of a northern hemisphere coronal 
hole is now positioned at ~32 W and should become geoeffective 
12 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Norfolk Island       2   00000013
      Culgoora             2   21100001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   11000101
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   23210001
      Mawson               1   11101010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1111 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr     7    Quiet
12 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Chance of active periods latter part of 12 Apr and 13 
Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-08 UT.
      Enhanced 20-40% 09-12. Enhanced 70-85% 13-17 UT.
      No data 18-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-40%
      enhancements 05-07, 21-23 UT. Enhancements of 45
      -60% 08-14 UT and 25-35% depressed 15-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of 20
      -45% 10-14 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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