[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 11 09:30:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: At least 4 C-class flares. Three originated from the
southeast limb while SDO images show the other originated from
a spotless region near N03E05. All regions appear stable. Available
LASCO and STEREO images show the only major CME was associated
with a C3.6 flare at 1817 UT on the southeast limb. Further images
are required to determine its trajectory. There may have been
CMEs associated with a filament eruption around 0000 UT in the
southeast quadrant and the C event at 1053 UT from the spotless
region above. ACE parameters show the solar wind speed range
360 to 470 km/s and the north-south IMF -2 to +5 nT. There is
the possibility of M-class flares from the active region on the
southeast limb. The leading edge of a northern hemisphere coronal
hole is now positioned at ~32 W and should become geoeffective
12 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 2 00000013
Culgoora 2 21100001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11000101
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23210001
Mawson 1 11101010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 7 Quiet
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Chance of active periods latter part of 12 Apr and 13
Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-08 UT.
Enhanced 20-40% 09-12. Enhanced 70-85% 13-17 UT.
No data 18-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-40%
enhancements 05-07, 21-23 UT. Enhancements of 45
-60% 08-14 UT and 25-35% depressed 15-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of 20
-45% 10-14 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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