[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 10 09:30:27 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Three low level C-class flares, one from AR 12031 and 
the others from the east limb. All regions are declining or stable. 
Two CMEs observed, the first, a far-side halo event around 08/2312 
UT associated with a filament eruption observed in STEREO B images, 
the other, a weak event on the southwest limb. Neither event 
is expected to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar wind 
speed ranging between 400-510 km/s with the north-south IMF +/-5 
nT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole is expected to become 
geoeffective on 11 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112211
      Cocos Island         2   11110110
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           5   22112221
      Learmonth            4   11212210
      Alice Springs        3   11112210
      Norfolk Island       2   11111101
      Culgoora             4   11112211
      Gingin               3   01112220
      Camden               4   11112211
      Canberra             4   11112211
      Launceston           5   11122221
      Hobart               4   11112221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00013210
      Casey                7   23322120
      Mawson              12   11322351

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2101 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr     5    Quiet
11 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods in latter half of 11 
Apr and 12 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Enhanced 25-50% 04-09 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
      Greater enhancements at Hobart, to 30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
11 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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