[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 9 09:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: All regions are stable or declining. Two new regions, 
12032 (N13 E71) an Eso group and unnumbered region at S03 E25 
a Bxo group. Two CMEs, first observed ~0100 and 1125 UT; neither 
appear Earth directed. ACE data show the north-south IMF ranging 
+/-5 nT, with the wind speed 360-480 km/s. A low probability 
of greater than C-class flares occurring over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21013101
      Cocos Island         2   21012100
      Darwin               3   22012101
      Townsville           4   22112101
      Learmonth            3   21013100
      Alice Springs        3   21012101
      Norfolk Island       2   11002001
      Culgoora             3   21012101
      Gingin               3   11013100
      Camden               3   11013101
      Canberra             3   11003100
      Launceston           4   22013110
      Hobart               3   12003100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   11013100
      Casey                6   33212101
      Mawson               6   32012113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2121 3422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr     5    Quiet
10 Apr     5    Quiet
11 Apr     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-20%
      01-04, 13-15, 21-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 10-25%. Enhanced 25-50% 05-12 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30%
      00-01, 09-13, 22-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
      Night spread F 14-20 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
      Depressions at Mawson after 13 UT.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
10 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
11 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    51600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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