[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 8 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Active regions 12021 (S13 W84), 12026 (S11 W28) and
12031 (N03 W37) produced five, low-level C-class flares. Region
12031 shows growth while other regions are declining or stable.
New Bxo region at S03 E38. Only a low probability of an M flare.
A CME was observed over the north-east limb while a slow filament
eruption on the south-west limb was observed around 21 UT; neither
appear Earth directed. ACE data show the solar wind steady until
~~10 UT. The north-south IMF component then ranged between +/-9
nT until 18 UT then settled. Density indicates the arrival of
a CME. Wind speed has increased from ~390 to 460 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 12213321
Cocos Island 4 11212220
Darwin 8 22213312
Townsville 10 22223412
Learmonth 9 22323321
Alice Springs 7 12213321
Norfolk Island 5 11212311
Culgoora 6 12212321
Gingin 9 10312431
Camden 7 12213321
Canberra 7 12213321
Launceston 9 12312421
Hobart 6 12212311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 00112511
Casey 9 23322321
Mawson 13 42223422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 6 Quiet
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07 UT. Enhanced
25-55% 08-20 UT. Depressed 15% 21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-40% 00-10 UT. Near predicted monthly
values 11-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values 00-17 UT.
Enhanced 20-30% 18-23 UT. Sporadic E at Townsville
08 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Larger
enhancements at the higher latitudes.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
09 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
10 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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