[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 8 09:30:24 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Active regions 12021 (S13 W84), 12026 (S11 W28) and 
12031 (N03 W37) produced five, low-level C-class flares. Region 
12031 shows growth while other regions are declining or stable. 
New Bxo region at S03 E38. Only a low probability of an M flare. 
A CME was observed over the north-east limb while a slow filament 
eruption on the south-west limb was observed around 21 UT; neither 
appear Earth directed. ACE data show the solar wind steady until 
~~10 UT. The north-south IMF component then ranged between +/-9 
nT until 18 UT then settled. Density indicates the arrival of 
a CME. Wind speed has increased from ~390 to 460 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12213321
      Cocos Island         4   11212220
      Darwin               8   22213312
      Townsville          10   22223412
      Learmonth            9   22323321
      Alice Springs        7   12213321
      Norfolk Island       5   11212311
      Culgoora             6   12212321
      Gingin               9   10312431
      Camden               7   12213321
      Canberra             7   12213321
      Launceston           9   12312421
      Hobart               6   12212311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     8   00112511
      Casey                9   23322321
      Mawson              13   42223422

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     6    Quiet
09 Apr     5    Quiet
10 Apr     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-07 UT. Enhanced
      25-55% 08-20 UT. Depressed 15% 21-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-40% 00-10 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values 11-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values 00-17 UT.
      Enhanced 20-30% 18-23 UT. Sporadic E at Townsville
      08 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Larger
      enhancements at the higher latitudes.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
09 Apr   125    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
10 Apr   125    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    51400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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