[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 7 09:30:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 06 April, with 
several C-class flares observed by GOES 15 X-ray flux detector. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days. Active 
region 12011 which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return. 
The solar wind decreased from 450 to 350 km/s over the last 24 
hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained mostly positive.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21000001
      Cocos Island         1   21100000
      Darwin               2   21100010
      Townsville           3   31010012
      Learmonth            2   31000000
      Alice Springs        1   21000001
      Norfolk Island       0   20000000
      Culgoora             1   2100-001
      Gingin               2   30000001
      Camden               1   21000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   21000101
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                5   23310000
      Mawson               3   21100103

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1014 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     4    Quiet
08 Apr     4    Quiet
09 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity was Mostly 
Quiet with a few isolated periods of Active levels early during 
the UT day, 06 April. Expect the next three days to be mostly 
Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 95% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally near predicted values or 
above in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to remain near 
predicted monthly values or slightly higher over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    94800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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