[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 6 09:30:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 05 April. Several 
C-class flares were observed today from active regions 12021 
and 12026. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for 
the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 05/1715UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Note, active region 
12011 which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 
6 Apr.

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
05/1715UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.
Region 2011 (S6) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 6 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12233323
      Cocos Island         8   02133213
      Darwin              11   22233323
      Townsville          14   22244323
      Learmonth           11   12134323
      Alice Springs       10   11233323
      Norfolk Island       9   11233223
      Culgoora            10   12233323
      Gingin              11   12134323
      Camden               9   11233223
      Canberra             8   11133223
      Launceston          16   12244334
      Hobart              10   11234223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    16   00155322
      Casey               11   23333222
      Mawson              13   32234323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1112 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     6    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     4    Quiet
08 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated 
periods of Active levels for the UT day, 05 April, in the Australian 
region due to CMEs associated with DSL observed on 01 April and 
M6.5 X-ray flare observed on 02 April. The next three days is 
expected to be mostly Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr   110    Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 
                to 20%
07 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 4 
April and is current for 4-6 Apr. Observed MUFs were generally 
near predicted values or slightly above in the Australian region. 
MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values or 
slightly higher over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    99100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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