[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 6 09:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 05 April. Several
C-class flares were observed today from active regions 12021
and 12026. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for
the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 05/1715UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Note, active region
12011 which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around
6 Apr.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
05/1715UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
Region 2011 (S6) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 6 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 12233323
Cocos Island 8 02133213
Darwin 11 22233323
Townsville 14 22244323
Learmonth 11 12134323
Alice Springs 10 11233323
Norfolk Island 9 11233223
Culgoora 10 12233323
Gingin 11 12134323
Camden 9 11233223
Canberra 8 11133223
Launceston 16 12244334
Hobart 10 11234223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 00155322
Casey 11 23333222
Mawson 13 32234323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1112 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 4 Quiet
08 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled with isolated
periods of Active levels for the UT day, 05 April, in the Australian
region due to CMEs associated with DSL observed on 01 April and
M6.5 X-ray flare observed on 02 April. The next three days is
expected to be mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 20%
07 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 4
April and is current for 4-6 Apr. Observed MUFs were generally
near predicted values or slightly above in the Australian region.
MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values or
slightly higher over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 99100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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