[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 14 issued 2342 UT on 04 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 5 10:42:48 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 04 April. Several 
C-class flares were observed today, the largest being a C8 X-ray 
flare from active region 2027(N12E17) at 1348UT. This was associated 
with a Type II radio burst, however no earthward directed CME 
was observed. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low to 
Moderate for the next 3 days. Although solar conditions are quiet 
at present, solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed 
during the next 24 hours due to 02 April CME effects. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 04/1120UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111211
      Cocos Island         2   11101200
      Darwin               3   12111201
      Townsville           5   22212211
      Learmonth            6   22212311
      Alice Springs        3   12111201
      Norfolk Island       3   12111101
      Culgoora             3   12--1201
      Gingin               5   12211311
      Camden               4   12111211
      Canberra             2   12111100
      Launceston           5   12222211
      Hobart               4   12111211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   01121000
      Casey               11   34411211
      Mawson               9   22211431

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    30    Unsettled to Active ith isolated Minor Storm 
                periods.
06 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for 5 Apr only. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet 
for the UT day, 04 April, in the Australian region. CME associated 
with M6.5 X-ray flare arrival is expected over the next 24 hours, 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active with 
isolated Minor Storm periods for 05 April and Quiet to Unsettled 
for 06 April. 07 April is expected to return to mostly Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.     
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 4 
April and is current for 4-6 Apr. Observed MUFs were generally 
above predicted monthly values. An increase in geomagnetic activity 
is expected today,05 April. There may be a slight lowering in 
MUFs values, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted 
monthly values or slightly higher over the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    59500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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