[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 14 issued 2342 UT on 04 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 5 10:42:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 04 April. Several
C-class flares were observed today, the largest being a C8 X-ray
flare from active region 2027(N12E17) at 1348UT. This was associated
with a Type II radio burst, however no earthward directed CME
was observed. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low to
Moderate for the next 3 days. Although solar conditions are quiet
at present, solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed
during the next 24 hours due to 02 April CME effects. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 04/1120UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Cocos Island 2 11101200
Darwin 3 12111201
Townsville 5 22212211
Learmonth 6 22212311
Alice Springs 3 12111201
Norfolk Island 3 12111101
Culgoora 3 12--1201
Gingin 5 12211311
Camden 4 12111211
Canberra 2 12111100
Launceston 5 12222211
Hobart 4 12111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01121000
Casey 11 34411211
Mawson 9 22211431
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 30 Unsettled to Active ith isolated Minor Storm
periods.
06 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 April and
is current for 5 Apr only. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet
for the UT day, 04 April, in the Australian region. CME associated
with M6.5 X-ray flare arrival is expected over the next 24 hours,
geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active with
isolated Minor Storm periods for 05 April and Quiet to Unsettled
for 06 April. 07 April is expected to return to mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 4
April and is current for 4-6 Apr. Observed MUFs were generally
above predicted monthly values. An increase in geomagnetic activity
is expected today,05 April. There may be a slight lowering in
MUFs values, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values or slightly higher over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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