[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 4 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 03 April. The
largest was a C5 X-ray flare from active region 12030(N11E42).
The solar wind speed has remained around 400km/s or slightly
below over the last 24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied
between +5/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12122111
Cocos Island 2 2111010-
Darwin 4 12112111
Townsville 5 12122112
Learmonth 4 22112111
Alice Springs 3 11112111
Norfolk Island 3 11022111
Culgoora 5 12122-12
Gingin 4 22112111
Camden 4 02122111
Canberra 4 01122112
Launceston 6 12123212
Hobart 6 12123211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00023100
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 8 12322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1000 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 6 Quiet
05 Apr 30 Active to Minor Storm
06 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 April and
is current for 5 Apr only. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet
for the UT day, 03 April, in the Australian region. Today, 04
April, is expected to be mostly Quiet as well. 05 April is expected
to be Unsettled to Active due to arrival of CME associated with
M6.5 X-ray flare. 06 April is expected to return to mostly Quiet
levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes
are possible on 05-06 April due to increased geomagnetic activity
from CME effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 110 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days, however depressions
at high latitudes possible on 05-06 April due to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs will likely remain above
monthly predicted values even with minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 86700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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