[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 4 10:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 03 April. The 
largest was a C5 X-ray flare from active region 12030(N11E42). 
The solar wind speed has remained around 400km/s or slightly 
below over the last 24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied 
between +5/-4nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12122111
      Cocos Island         2   2111010-
      Darwin               4   12112111
      Townsville           5   12122112
      Learmonth            4   22112111
      Alice Springs        3   11112111
      Norfolk Island       3   11022111
      Culgoora             5   12122-12
      Gingin               4   22112111
      Camden               4   02122111
      Canberra             4   01122112
      Launceston           6   12123212
      Hobart               6   12123211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00023100
      Casey               12   34422112
      Mawson               8   12322232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1000 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     6    Quiet
05 Apr    30    Active to Minor Storm
06 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for 5 Apr only. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet 
for the UT day, 03 April, in the Australian region. Today, 04 
April, is expected to be mostly Quiet as well. 05 April is expected 
to be Unsettled to Active due to arrival of CME associated with 
M6.5 X-ray flare. 06 April is expected to return to mostly Quiet 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes 
are possible on 05-06 April due to increased geomagnetic activity 
from CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr   110    About 10% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next three days, however depressions 
at high latitudes possible on 05-06 April due to an expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs will likely remain above 
monthly predicted values even with minor depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    86700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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