[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 14 issued 2343 UT on 02 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 3 10:43:46 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.5 1405UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 02 April. This
was due to an M6.5 X-ray flare peaking at 1405UT from active
region 2027 (N12E41). This flare was associated a 2B H-alpha
flare with parallel ribbon characteristics and a partial halo
CME observed by LASCO C2 imager initially at 1336UT. It is likely
to be Earthward directed for a glancing blow. Several subflares
were also observed in H-alpha from active regions 2026, 2027,
and 2030 during the period. Solar activity is expected to be
Low to Moderate for the next 3 days. Late in the UT day on 01
April GONG H-alpha showed a disappearing solar filament southeast
of active region 2021. This activity was associated with a slow
moving partial halo CME first observed at 1648UT on LASCO C2
imagery. Based on CAT fit and Enlil model it is expected to arrive
at Earth on 5 April at 2100UT. The solar wind speed has remained
around 400km/s or slightly above over the last 24 hours and the
IMF BZ component varied between +5/-1nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11000211
Cocos Island 2 21000200
Darwin 2 11000201
Townsville 3 11101211
Learmonth 2 11100211
Alice Springs 2 11000211
Norfolk Island 2 10000112
Culgoora 7 13-3-211
Gingin 3 10000311
Camden 2 11000211
Canberra 1 11000111
Launceston 3 12100211
Hobart 1 11000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 12 34421221
Mawson 12 22110245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1100 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 6 Quiet
05 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the UT day,
02 April, in the Australian region. The CME occurring on 30/1155UT
is expected to have a glancing blow today, 03 April, however
is not expected to cause Active or Storm level activity in the
Australian region. 04 April is expected to be mostly Quiet and
05 April is expected to be unsettled to Active due to arrival
of CME associated with M6.5 X-ray flare.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes
are possible on 05 April due to increased geomagnetic activity
from CME effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 130 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 01
April and is current for 2-3 Apr. HF conditions were mostly normal
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours with enhanced
MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected for the next
three days, however depressions at high latitudes possible on
05 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values even with
minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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