[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 14 issued 2343 UT on 02 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 3 10:43:46 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.5    1405UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 02 April. This 
was due to an M6.5 X-ray flare peaking at 1405UT from active 
region 2027 (N12E41). This flare was associated a 2B H-alpha 
flare with parallel ribbon characteristics and a partial halo 
CME observed by LASCO C2 imager initially at 1336UT. It is likely 
to be Earthward directed for a glancing blow. Several subflares 
were also observed in H-alpha from active regions 2026, 2027, 
and 2030 during the period. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low to Moderate for the next 3 days. Late in the UT day on 01 
April GONG H-alpha showed a disappearing solar filament southeast 
of active region 2021. This activity was associated with a slow 
moving partial halo CME first observed at 1648UT on LASCO C2 
imagery. Based on CAT fit and Enlil model it is expected to arrive 
at Earth on 5 April at 2100UT. The solar wind speed has remained 
around 400km/s or slightly above over the last 24 hours and the 
IMF BZ component varied between +5/-1nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000211
      Cocos Island         2   21000200
      Darwin               2   11000201
      Townsville           3   11101211
      Learmonth            2   11100211
      Alice Springs        2   11000211
      Norfolk Island       2   10000112
      Culgoora             7   13-3-211
      Gingin               3   10000311
      Camden               2   11000211
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Launceston           3   12100211
      Hobart               1   11000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               12   34421221
      Mawson              12   22110245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1100 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr     6    Quiet
05 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the UT day, 
02 April, in the Australian region. The CME occurring on 30/1155UT 
is expected to have a glancing blow today, 03 April, however 
is not expected to cause Active or Storm level activity in the 
Australian region. 04 April is expected to be mostly Quiet and 
05 April is expected to be unsettled to Active due to arrival 
of CME associated with M6.5 X-ray flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes 
are possible on 05 April due to increased geomagnetic activity 
from CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr   130    About 10% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 01 
April and is current for 2-3 Apr. HF conditions were mostly normal 
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours with enhanced 
MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
three days, however depressions at high latitudes possible on 
05 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. 
MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values even with 
minor depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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