[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 14 issued 2331 UT on 01 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:31:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 01 April. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed was slightly above 400km/s over the last
24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 2 11111101
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 4 11201212
Alice Springs 2 11101111
Norfolk Island 2 11101111
Culgoora 3 11------
Gingin 3 11101211
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 2 11100111
Launceston 3 11101212
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01001201
Casey 11 24421212
Mawson 12 13212225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 0111 3431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
04 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the UT day, 01 April,
in the Australian region. The CME occurring 28/1652UT is expected
to have a glancing blow over the next 12 hours. If it hits the
Earth expect periods of unsettled conditions with isolated cases
of active conditions in the Australian region and isolated periods
of minor storm in Antarctica. Also the CME occurring on 30/1155UT
is expected to have a glancing blow on 03 April. Neither is expected
to cause Storm level activity in the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes
are possible between 02-03 April due to increased geomagnetic
activity from CME effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 1
April and is current for 2-3 Apr. HF conditions were mostly normal
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours with enhanced
MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected for the next
three days, however depressions at high latitudes possible on
02-03 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values even with
minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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