[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 14 issued 2331 UT on 01 Apr 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:31:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 01 April. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed was slightly above 400km/s over the last 
24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied between +/-5nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Cocos Island         2   11111101
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           4   12111112
      Learmonth            4   11201212
      Alice Springs        2   11101111
      Norfolk Island       2   11101111
      Culgoora             3   11------
      Gingin               3   11101211
      Camden               2   11101111
      Canberra             2   11100111
      Launceston           3   11101212
      Hobart               2   11100111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   01001201
      Casey               11   24421212
      Mawson              12   13212225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   0111 3431     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
03 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
04 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the UT day, 01 April, 
in the Australian region. The CME occurring 28/1652UT is expected 
to have a glancing blow over the next 12 hours. If it hits the 
Earth expect periods of unsettled conditions with isolated cases 
of active conditions in the Australian region and isolated periods 
of minor storm in Antarctica. Also the CME occurring on 30/1155UT 
is expected to have a glancing blow on 03 April. Neither is expected 
to cause Storm level activity in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes 
are possible between 02-03 April due to increased geomagnetic 
activity from CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr   130    About 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr   130    About 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr   130    About 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 1 
April and is current for 2-3 Apr. HF conditions were mostly normal 
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours with enhanced 
MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
three days, however depressions at high latitudes possible on 
02-03 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. 
MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values even with 
minor depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    99600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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