[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 14 issued 2334 UT on 31 Mar 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 1 10:34:33 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0804UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 152/107


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate for the UT day, 31 
March, due to an M1 flare from active region 2014 on the southwest 
limb. It is not expected to be geo-effective. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed on 31 March, however a partial halo CME was 
observed on 30 March and may have a glancing blow on 3 April. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 
3 days. The solar wind speed remained around 400km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied between +/-5nT. 
The effects of an equatorial coronal hole are likely to result 
in an increased solar wind today, 01 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11113211
      Cocos Island         4   12211220
      Darwin               5   12122211
      Townsville           5   11123211
      Learmonth            7   21223221
      Alice Springs        5   11023211
      Norfolk Island       3   11012111
      Culgoora             3   1111-210
      Gingin               7   11213321
      Camden               4   11013210
      Canberra             3   01013210
      Launceston           6   12113221
      Hobart               5   11113220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   01104320
      Casey               10   33323211
      Mawson              11   12223342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr    20    Active
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet for the UT 
day, 31 March, in the Australian region. An equatorial coronal 
hole is likely to lead to unsettled conditions on 01 April. CME 
effects are expected to commence from late on 01 April or early 
02 April, with periods of unsettled to possibly active conditions 
in the Australian region, with isolated periods of minor storm 
in Antarctica.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes 
are possible between 01-03 April due to increased geomagnetic 
activity from coronal hole and CME effects, respectively.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr   140    About 30% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr   120    About 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr   120    About 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 29 
March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. HF conditions were 
mostly normal in the Australian region over the last 24 hours 
with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next three days, however depressions at high latitudes 
possible on 02-03 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity. MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values 
even with minor depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    43800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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