[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 14 issued 2334 UT on 31 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 1 10:34:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0804UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate for the UT day, 31
March, due to an M1 flare from active region 2014 on the southwest
limb. It is not expected to be geo-effective. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed on 31 March, however a partial halo CME was
observed on 30 March and may have a glancing blow on 3 April.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed remained around 400km/s over the
last 24 hours and the IMF BZ component varied between +/-5nT.
The effects of an equatorial coronal hole are likely to result
in an increased solar wind today, 01 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11113211
Cocos Island 4 12211220
Darwin 5 12122211
Townsville 5 11123211
Learmonth 7 21223221
Alice Springs 5 11023211
Norfolk Island 3 11012111
Culgoora 3 1111-210
Gingin 7 11213321
Camden 4 11013210
Canberra 3 01013210
Launceston 6 12113221
Hobart 5 11113220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 01104320
Casey 10 33323211
Mawson 11 12223342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2001 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 20 Active
03 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet for the UT
day, 31 March, in the Australian region. An equatorial coronal
hole is likely to lead to unsettled conditions on 01 April. CME
effects are expected to commence from late on 01 April or early
02 April, with periods of unsettled to possibly active conditions
in the Australian region, with isolated periods of minor storm
in Antarctica.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes
are possible between 01-03 April due to increased geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole and CME effects, respectively.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 140 About 30% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 29
March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. HF conditions were
mostly normal in the Australian region over the last 24 hours
with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected
for the next three days, however depressions at high latitudes
possible on 02-03 April due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. MUFs will likely remain above monthly predicted values
even with minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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