[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 30 09:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
only B-class flares. Currently five active regions on the disc 
but all relatively stable. Disappearing filament on the western 
limb from a region just rotating off disc so if there was an 
associated CME it is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind 
speed was low 280-300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF 
north-south Bz mostly stayed near zero but went negative up to 
-10nT since 19UT and is continuing south at 23UT,enhancing merging 
with the geomagnetic field and likely caused by a sector boundary. 
There is a possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed 
parameters due to minor coronal hole effects over 30th April 
UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the 
next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated low M-class flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   10001013
      Cocos Island         2   10100012
      Darwin               2   10101012
      Townsville           3   10001013
      Learmonth            2   10001012
      Alice Springs        2   10001012
      Norfolk Island       2   10000013
      Culgoora             3   21001013
      Gingin               2   20001002
      Camden               3   10001013
      Canberra             2   10001003
      Launceston           3   00002013
      Hobart               2   00001013    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001002
      Casey                2   11011002
      Mawson               3   31010001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2322 1332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    12    Unsettled
01 May     6    Quiet
02 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
on 30th April. This is due to enhanced merging with the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south (Bz) component turned 
substantially southward from 19UT, probably the result of a solar 
sector boundary crossing. A following minor coronal hole will 
probably also enhance solar wind speed and resultant geomagnetic 
activity on 30th also. The field should return to Quiet conditions 
on the following two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      141
Apr      86
May      86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
02 May   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions somewhat depressed over the region for 
the 29th April UT day compared with recent conditions, primarily 
due to strong nighttime depressions. However the T-index is only 
slightly below long term monthly predicted T (due to late phasing 
of solar cycle 24). The lack of geomagnetic activity would suggest 
a cause of transport of ionisation out of the region by thermospheric 
winds. Unsettled geomagnetic activity on the 30th may continue 
this relatively depressed state for another 24 hours. Return 
to normal conditions (i.e. enhanced over long term predicted 
monthly T) may be expected from the 1st May UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    19900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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