[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 30 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only B-class flares. Currently five active regions on the disc
but all relatively stable. Disappearing filament on the western
limb from a region just rotating off disc so if there was an
associated CME it is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind
speed was low 280-300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF
north-south Bz mostly stayed near zero but went negative up to
-10nT since 19UT and is continuing south at 23UT,enhancing merging
with the geomagnetic field and likely caused by a sector boundary.
There is a possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed
parameters due to minor coronal hole effects over 30th April
UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the
next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated low M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 10001013
Cocos Island 2 10100012
Darwin 2 10101012
Townsville 3 10001013
Learmonth 2 10001012
Alice Springs 2 10001012
Norfolk Island 2 10000013
Culgoora 3 21001013
Gingin 2 20001002
Camden 3 10001013
Canberra 2 10001003
Launceston 3 00002013
Hobart 2 00001013
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00001002
Casey 2 11011002
Mawson 3 31010001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2322 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 12 Unsettled
01 May 6 Quiet
02 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
on 30th April. This is due to enhanced merging with the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south (Bz) component turned
substantially southward from 19UT, probably the result of a solar
sector boundary crossing. A following minor coronal hole will
probably also enhance solar wind speed and resultant geomagnetic
activity on 30th also. The field should return to Quiet conditions
on the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions somewhat depressed over the region for
the 29th April UT day compared with recent conditions, primarily
due to strong nighttime depressions. However the T-index is only
slightly below long term monthly predicted T (due to late phasing
of solar cycle 24). The lack of geomagnetic activity would suggest
a cause of transport of ionisation out of the region by thermospheric
winds. Unsettled geomagnetic activity on the 30th may continue
this relatively depressed state for another 24 hours. Return
to normal conditions (i.e. enhanced over long term predicted
monthly T) may be expected from the 1st May UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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