[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 28 09:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
No significant flare has been observed today (UT day 27 September) 
until the time of this report. Solar wind speed mostly stayed 
between 310 and 330 km/s during the UT day today. IMF Bz mostly 
stayed positive up to +3nT during the first half of the UT day 
today and negative up to -3 nT during the second half of the 
day. Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal values for 
the next three days. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next 3 days with some possibility of C-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000101
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           1   10000111
      Learmonth            1   01000101
      Alice Springs        0   00000101
      Norfolk Island       -   --------
      Culgoora             0   00000100
      Gingin               0   00000100
      Camden               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               3   ---01112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22210111
      Mawson               5   20001033
      Davis                2   11001022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     4    Quiet
29 Sep     4    Quiet
30 Sep     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
There is some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 
30 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods 
of MUF enhancements at some low and high latitude locations were 
observed on 27 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the 
possibility of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    80    About 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep    80    About 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods 
of MUF enhancements at some low and high latitude locations were 
observed on 27 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the 
possibility of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the 
next 3 days in the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    26100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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