[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 27 09:30:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
No significant flare has been observed today (UT day 26 September)
until the time of this report. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from 380 km/s to 320 km/s during the UT day today, indicating
a further weakening effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. IMF Bz mostly stayed positive up to +3nT
today. Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal values
for the next three days. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of C-class
activity (more likely from region 1850 currently at N08W03).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 0 10000001
Gingin 0 00000011
Camden 0 10000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 4 13201011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210010
Mawson 2 01100012
Davis 2 11110011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2220 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed
on 26 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 80 About 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 80 About 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 80 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed
on 26 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days
in the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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