[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 13 issued 2322 UT on 25 Sep 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 26 09:22:09 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
A C1.1 flare was observed from region 1846 yesterday (24 September) 
at 2256UT. This event could not be included in yesterday's report 
due to its late timing. No significant flare has been observed 
today (UT day 25 September) until the time of this report. Solar 
wind speed showed a gradual decline from 450 km/s to 390 km/s 
during the UT day today, indicating a weakening effect of the 
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. IMF Bz mostly 
varied between +/-4 nT today, staying north for relatively longer 
periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken 
over the next 24 hours as the coronal hole effect declines further. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210011
      Cocos Island         1   12-10000
      Darwin               2   12100012
      Townsville           2   11210011
      Learmonth            3   22210001
      Alice Springs        3   12200012
      Norfolk Island       -   --------
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               3   21210002
      Camden               2   11210001
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               5   12210032    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   11110001
      Casey               11   44421001
      Mawson               8   43222101
      Davis                6   33321000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1103 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep     6    Quiet
27 Sep     4    Quiet
28 Sep     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods 
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed 
on 25 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility 
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    80    About 10% above predicted monthly values
27 Sep    85    About 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep    85    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods 
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed 
on 25 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility 
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days 
in the Aus/NZ region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    77900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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