[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 23 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity declined during the previous 24
hours and is expected to be very low with a chance of a C-class
flare on 23 September. Active Region 1850 only produced a single
B6.0 class flare at 02:47 UT during 22 September. A Disappearing
Solar Filament (DSF) occurred on the south west limb during 22
September: The Learmonth solar radio spectrograph detected enhanced
solar VHF emissions starting about 03:05 UT. The Learmonth GONG
H-alpha telescope recorded the prominence erupting from the south
west limb during 03:29 to 05:31 UT. SOHO LASCO images showed
the associated CME expanding toward the south west starting at
about 05:00 UT. Combined SOHO and STEREO images suggest that
the CME is not Earthward directed. The solar wind speed declined
from about 420 km/s to 380 km/s, and the IMF Bz component fluctuated
mostly in the range -4 nT to +3 nT during the previous 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is expected to increase later today due
to the arrival of fast flows emanating from equatorial coronal
hole structure associated with CH 587 located in the Northern
Hemisphere. A slow CME associated with the prominence eruption
on 19 September may impact Earth during 23-24 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11202101
Cocos Island 2 11201100
Darwin 4 22202102
Townsville 4 22202111
Learmonth 3 22202100
Alice Springs 3 11202101
Norfolk Island 2 11202010
Culgoora 3 12202101
Gingin 2 11202100
Camden 4 11302110
Canberra 3 11202101
Hobart 1 10------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 11202000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 6 23312100
Davis 9 23423110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2123 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet on 23
September, becoming unsettled later in the day due to the arrival
of the next high speed solar wind stream and the possible impact
of a slow CME. No geomagnetic storm is expected at this stage.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 5-15% during 04-06 UT, 09-12 UT, 16-17 UT
Depressed 30% during 20-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 04-05 UT and 11-12 UT.
Depressed by 5-35% for most of the day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced up to 10% during 13-14 UT.
Depressed 5-25% for most of the day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during 12-22 UT.
Depressed by 5-15% for east coast stations during 00-12 UT.
Depressed by 5-20% for Perth and Learmonth most of the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mildly depressed throughout
most of the Australian region on 22 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 83200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list