[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 13 issued 2325 UT on 23 Sep 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 24 09:25:42 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             108/58             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from nearly 400 km/s to 
340 km/s and IMF Bz showed fluctuations between +/-4nT during 
this period. Low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100021
      Cocos Island         2   12110020
      Darwin               2   12000011
      Townsville           3   12101021
      Learmonth            2   12100020
      Alice Springs        1   11000020
      Norfolk Island       1   11001---
      Culgoora             3   1-------
      Gingin               2   21100021
      Camden               2   12100021
      Canberra             2   11000021
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                8   33321121
      Mawson              19   33202164
      Davis               16   23312160

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2220 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep     5    Quiet
26 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to 
unsettled levels on 24 September. Mostly quiet conditions may 
be expected on 25 and 26 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mild degradations in HF conditions were observed on 
low latitude locations on 23 September. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of mildly depressed HF propagation conditions 
were observed on low latitude locations on 23 September. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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