[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 22 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Active Region 1850 continued to produce low level B
and C-class X-ray flares. The largest event was a C3.0 event
at 09:24 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain low with a
chance of an M-class flare. SOHO LASCO images show a major CME
leaving the north east limb starting about 03 UT on 21 September.
This initial ejection was followed by a succession of at least
three distinct ejections occurring during ~03-12 UT. The final
ejection at 11 UT extends the cone angle of the combined event
well into the south east sector. These ejections are not Earthward
directed but heliosphere modelling may reveal a combined front
impacting Earth on about 24 September. The solar wind speed was
mostly in the range 400-440 km/s during the previous 24 hours
and is expected to increase again during 22 September due to
the arrival of fast flows emanating from equatorward coronal
hole structure associated with CH 587 located in the Northern
Hemisphere. The slow CME launched from the SE limb on 19 September
may impact Earth on 23-24 September. The magnitude of the IMF
is presently about 4 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating
mostly in the range -5 nT to +4 nT during the previous 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11222221
Cocos Island 5 12221221
Darwin 5 21122212
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 5 21122221
Norfolk Island 5 11122221
Culgoora 5 11222211
Gingin 7 11123232
Camden 7 12223221
Canberra 6 11123221
Hobart 7 11223321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 00134100
Casey 11 33422222
Mawson 13 43123224
Davis 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
today, 22 September. The outlook is for unsettled conditions
on 22-24 September due to the arrival of the next high speed
solar wind stream and the possible impacts of CMEs. None of the
CMEs are Earthward directed and no geomagnetic storms are expected
at this stage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 10-40% during 4-14 UT and 17-19 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 10-35% for most of the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 5-30% during 07-13 UT and 15-20 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Slightly depressed by 5% during 00-08 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A strong day time enhancement occurred at Cocos Island.
Conditions were depressed at Niue and across the Northern Australian
Region. There were night time spread F conditions at Perth and
Hobart.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 82000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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