[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 21 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: The sunspot number and 10.7 cm solar flux are presently
trending upwards. Active Region 1850 has produced two B-class
and four C-class X-ray flares during the previous 24 hours. The
largest event was a C3.8 event at 11:53 UT. Solar activity is
expected to remain low though with a chance of an M-class flare.
SOHO LASCO images show a strong CME leaving the north-north east
limb starting about 03 UT followed by a second event at 13 UT
on 20 September. These impressive CMEs will not be geo-effective.
However, a slow CME launched from the SE limb on 19 September
may deliver a glancing blow to the Earth on 23-24 September.
The large coronal hole (CH 587) located in the Northern Hemisphere
is now traversing the western hemisphere. Weaker coronal hole
structure extends to the solar equator. Elevated solar wind speeds
are expected to sweep past Earth 22-23 September. The solar wind
speed declined from 550 km/s to less than 450 km/s during the
previous 24 hours and is expected to weaken further today, before
increasing again on 22-23 September due to the arrival of a weak
CME or the next high speed stream. The magnitude of the IMF was
mostly in the range 2-4 nT and the Bz component fluctuated mostly
in the range -3 nT to +3 nT during the previous 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11222002
Cocos Island 4 22211002
Darwin 5 21222102
Townsville 7 22223112
Learmonth 5 21123002
Alice Springs 4 12222002
Norfolk Island 4 11222011
Culgoora 4 11222002
Gingin 6 21222013
Camden 5 11223012
Canberra 4 11222002
Hobart 6 12233002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 7 12243000
Casey 11 33323113
Mawson 27 34322127
Davis 27 23332137
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13 3344 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The minor effects of a high speed solar wind stream
are subsiding and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
during the next two days, 21-22 September. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to become quiet to unsettled again during 22-23
September due to the arrival of a weak CME or the next high speed
stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 10-35% during 03-08 UT.
Depressed 20-30% during 13-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 10-25% during 00-11 UT.
Depressed 30% during 14-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 10-20% during 00-05 UT.
Depressed 10-30% during 13-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly depressed 10-30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Strong day time enhancements occurred at Cocos Island,
Niue and across the Northern Australian Region. Ionospheric conditions
were otherwise generally depressed throughout the Australian
Region for 20 September. The 10.7 cm solar flux is trending upwards
and propagation conditions are expected to return to near predicted
monthly values for 21-22 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list