[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 13 issued 2329 UT on 02 Sep 2013

Tue Sep 3 09:29:16 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 106/55

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Active region 1837 (S17W17) showed signs of growth. An eruption, 
probably due to a disappearing filament, was observed in STEREO-A 
imagery from 02/1954 UT. Further analysis is required to determine 
whether this will be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
reached a peak at around 03 UT of ~500 km/s then declined gradually 
to just under 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component had a negative bias 
during the UT day to around -5nT. Solar wind parameters are likely 
to be affected by the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream 
from 4-Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13323100
      Cocos Island         4   12222100
      Darwin               8   23323101
      Townsville           8   23323111
      Learmonth            7   22323110
      Alice Springs        7   22323101
      Norfolk Island       7   13323101
      Culgoora             8   13323111
      Gingin               6   12323110
      Camden               7   13323100
      Canberra             7   13323100
      Hobart               8   12324110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    21   14446110
      Casey               10   34322211
      Mawson              17   34522331
      Davis               12   33433210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3232 2213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep     5    Quiet
04 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Some active periods were observed in southern Australia 
around the middle of the UT day. Otherwise, conditions were quiet 
to unsettled. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 3-Sep 
with some unsettled conditions on 3-4 Sep due to coronal hole 
effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Sep    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in the northern 
Australian region. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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