[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 13 issued 2331 UT on 03 Sep 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 09:31:13 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest 
event being a C1 flare from region 1834 (N12W59). Region 1835 
(S13W52) showed signs of renewed growth. Solar activity is expected 
to be low for the next 3 days, with a small chance of higher 
activity. The solar wind speed increased during the second half 
of the UT day to just below 500 km/s, probably due to a small 
equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bz component fluctuated from 
around -5nT to +8nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline 
from late on 4-Sep. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 03/0525UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Region 
1818 (S6) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return 
around 4 Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212112
      Cocos Island         4   12111112
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           5   21212112
      Learmonth            6   21312212
      Alice Springs        4   12211112
      Norfolk Island       3   10211012
      Culgoora             4   11212112
      Gingin               5   21211212
      Camden               4   11212112
      Canberra             4   11212112
      Hobart               4   11212112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   00112101
      Casey                9   33322122
      Mawson              14   21211226
      Davis                6   22222121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2443 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep     5    Quiet
06 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australia 
region, with some unsettled periods in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 4-Sep, due to coronal hole effects. 
Quiet conditions are likely for 5-6 Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in the Cocus 
Island region. Otherwise, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs are expected to remain near monthly predicted values, 
with slight depressions, for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list