[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1541UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with several C flares 
and a single M1.2 peaking at 1541UT. All flares from AR1861 which 
will rotate off the disc 19-20th Oct. For the M1.2 flare there 
is no SOHO or either STEREO A or B spacecraft coronagraph available 
for several hours around this time to assess whether a CME was 
issued. No type II radio burst reported so reasonable chance 
of no CME. AR1861 nearing west limb so any CME unlikely to be 
very geoeffective, with glancing blow 19-20th Oct at most. CME 
observed in SOHO and STEREO-B spacecraft coronagraph from ~0430UT, 
probably associated with C2.5 flare at 0348UT from a region just 
rotating onto east limb or AR1873 at 60deg east. CME directed 
south-east in coronagraphs so unlikely to be geoeffective with 
slight glancing blow at best on 19-20th. Solar wind speed steadily 
declined from 460km/s to a light 380km/s. IMF Bz was mainly southward 
and variable in the -2nT to -6nT range, probably mildly merging 
with the geomagnetic field.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232211
      Cocos Island         3   12121100
      Darwin               7   22232211
      Townsville           7   22232211
      Learmonth            8   22242211
      Alice Springs        7   22232211
      Culgoora             7   22232211
      Camden               7   22232211
      Canberra             5   12231210
      Launceston          10   23342211
      Hobart               8   22332211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    13   12354200
      Casey               12   33433211
      Mawson              18   43333343
      Davis               13   33343222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   4211 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     5    Quiet
19 Oct     5    Quiet
20 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and low 
latitudes. Polar latitudes slightly disturbed by fluctuating 
and southwards IMF Bz. Conditions are expected to quieten over 
the 18th and remain so for the 19-20th in the absence of new 
CMEs or extended IMF Bz periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 17 
October and is current for 18 Oct only. Max Usable Frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values over most of the Australasian 
region with night-time enhancements across mid and low latitudes 
from either remnant geomagnetic activity of the previous day 
or thermospheric winds transporting ionisation into the region. 
Expected to continue at or above median MUFs for next 1-2 days 
due to relatively strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) from numerous 
sunspot regions on the disc. The most prolific x-ray region AR1861 
rotates off the disc 18-19th so ionising flux may decrease slightly 
from the 20th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    77700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list