[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 13 issued 2350 UT on 18 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 19 10:50:54 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
most significant event being a C8.4 flare from region 1861. Region
1875 was also the source of numerous C-class events. Solar wind
speed steadily declined from ~400km/s to be ~360km/s at the time
of this report. IMF Bz ranged between +/-3nT with only occasional
southward excursions. Solar activity is expected to range between
Low to Moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 00100010
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 2 11100012
Alice Springs 1 11000011
Culgoora 1 11100011
Camden 1 10100011
Canberra 1 02000011
Launceston 2 11100022
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00100010
Casey 8 33311022
Mawson 5 21211131
Davis 5 12311121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2332 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 4 Quiet
20 Oct 4 Quiet
21 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region
with high latitudes being Unsettled. Quiet conditions are expected
for 19Oct-20Oct. Possible increase in activity on 21Oct due to
potential glancing blow CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for Low and High latitudes.
Slightly depressed periods for Mid latitudes. Similar conditions
expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's observed for IPS Niue station during
local day. Depressed MUF's for Southern AUS regions during local
day and undisturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
over the last 24 hours. Similar ionospheric conditions are expected
for the next 3 days due to relatively strong ionising EUV flux
(f10.7cm) from the numerous sunspot regions on the disc.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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