[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 13 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 17 10:31:57 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 15/2337UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low on the 16th Oct with C class 
flares from 4 of the 10 numbered active regions on the disc, 
AR1861 and 1865 which have been flare producing the last few 
days and also ARs 1870 (in the same area as 1865 and 1861) and 
1867, soon to rotate off the limb. Solar wind speed has declined 
from an elevated 530km/s and settled at 450km/s, slightly above 
average as the influence of the coronal hole high-speed solar-wind 
stream wanes. There is a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere 
that should be geoffective in ~ 4 days. 
An earthward directed coronal mass ejection associated with an 
M1.7 flare on the 13th was predicted to arrive for a glancing 
blow in the middle of the UT day on the 16th but has not yet arrived, 
so the shock front may have been narrower than modelled or the speed
overestimated. If it does not arrive by the middle of the 17th then
it has most likely missed Earth. A CME on the 15th associated with an M1.8 
flare from AR1865 has been modelled as directed too far southwards 
to be significantly geoeffective. A type II radio burst, often 
indicative of a CME, was observed ~09UT on the 16th associated 
with a low C flare from the geoeffectively positioned AR1861, 
but no CME was observed in the SOHO or STEREO spacecraft coronagraphs.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212222
      Cocos Island         3   21112110
      Darwin               7   22212223
      Townsville           6   22113212
      Learmonth            6   22212222
      Alice Springs        7   22213212
      Culgoora             6   22212222
      Camden               6   22212222
      Canberra             4   12112211
      Launceston          10   23223322
      Hobart               8   23222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     8   22123312
      Casey               17   44433223
      Mawson              35   55324652
      Davis               20   43334351

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   4443 3213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     5    Quiet
18 Oct     5    Quiet
19 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and low 
latitudes. Higher latitudes were more disturbed due to enhanced 
but declining solar wind speed. An anticipated CME glancing blow 
did not arrive (see solar section) so conditions are expected 
to quieten over the 17th and remain so for the 18-19th in the 
absence of new CMEs or extended IMF Bz periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15 
October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Max Usable Frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values over most of the region with 
low variability as geomagnetic activity subsides. Expected to 
continue at or slightly above median MUFs for next 3 days due 
to relatively strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) from 10 sunspot 
regions on the disc. There was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) 
in the SW Pacific (recorded at Niue) up to 9MHz from a low M 
class flare from spot group AR1865 at ~2340UT on the 15th. AR1865 
has further potential for low M class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   173000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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